About the Forecasting ACE Site
Forecasting Ace invites you to participate in an exciting and
important research project that will lead to an improved system for
predicting future events and outcomes. Potential applications of the
system include forecasting economic conditions, political changes,
technological development, or medical breakthroughs, to name a few.
Interested? Read on to learn more.
Don't forecasting systems already exist? (show)
- Yes, they do, and many work pretty well. Among the best
approaches are those that use the average forecast or prediction of
many people.
How will this system be different from the
others? (show)
- Our system will not rely on simple averaging, but will combine
forecasts from many people in a way that substantially outperforms
simple averaging of judgments. We will be testing many ideas and do not
know yet which will work best.
Who is doing this research? (show)
- A team of scientists from a private research company and seven
different universities are conducting this research. The universities
are: The University of Maryland, Ohio State
University, Fordham University, Wake Forest University, Wichita State University and the
University of California-Irvine. The company is ARA.
Who is funding this research? (show)
- The U.S. Government, specifically the Intelligence Advanced
Research Projects Activity (IARPA), is funding the work with the
expectation that it will improve the accuracy of intelligence analysis.
But the system will be used far more broadly than that. Examples of
other applications include improving economic and business forecasting,
improving medical diagnosis, and guiding the allocation of resources
into the most promising areas of scientific research.
What will I do on this project? (show)
- This project will continue for at least one and as many as
four years. After you register, you can participate for as much or
little of that time as you wish. You will be asked at various times to
give your best probability judgments about future events in areas such
as politics; foreign affairs; economics; science and technology; and
popular topics such as sports and entertainment. As new information
becomes available, you can change your judgments to reflect your
revised opinions.
What is the time horizon for a forecast? (show)
- All events will have a precise time frame - in some cases
weeks and in others months, so that ultimately the truth will be known.
At that time, we will tell you what the actual outcome was and you can
compare it to your forecast.
Why should I contribute? What's in it for me? (show)
- There are lots of reasons to contribute. This is an
opportunity for you to compare your forecasting skills to those of
others; and to improve your skills. Most people tend to be
overconfident in their predictions. Learn whether you are in this group
or whether you are among the few who tend to be accurate. By receiving
feedback along with a record of your judgments, you can learn to
improve your forecasting abilities. To increase the fun of
contributing forecasts, we will set up competitions, so that you can see how
well you do in comparison to other contributors overall or in certain
topic areas that you identify. You can even arrange private
competitions with your friends. Also, you will have the satisfaction of
knowing that you are contributing to important scientific research that
will improve forecasting systems across the nation. To keep you
informed of study progress and findings, we will release semi-annual
newsletters.
But I am not an expert in all those areas. Can I
really help? (show)
- Yes! You may be an expert in one or two of these areas, or
maybe not in any of them. But if you keep up with events in the world,
and think about them from time to time, then you have opinions that are
informed by some knowledge and your input will be valuable. The
advantage of averaging judgments is that lots of people know a little
bit, but when that is combined, it adds up to a tremendous amount. And
if there are topics that you really don't know anything about or care
about, then you just ignore those.
What are the qualifications to participate? (show)
- The only qualifications are: (1) Ability to communicate in
English. English need not be your native language, but you should be
able to understand the nuances of the questions asked and be able to
write short responses that can be shared with others. (2) You must be
18 years of age or older. (3) You should be enrolled in or graduated
with a bachelor's degree from a college or university. (4) You are not
participating in another IARPA-funded forecasting study.
What happens when I join? (show)
- Joining involves answering a few questions about
yourself, but we will never ask you for identifying information. You
will remain anonymous to us throughout the study. You will be asked to
make up a screen name to login. We will use that name to track your
forecasts and to provide you with feedback.
How will you communicate with me? (show)
- We will keep your email address in a separate, secure file so
that we can let you know when new problems are available for forecasting,
remind you occasionally to consider updating your forecasts, and to let
you know when newsletters about the study are available for viewing or
downloading.
How often will you contact me? (show)
- We will be careful not to send you emails too frequently. You
can even update your contact preferences to increase or decrease the
frequency. And if you ever want to opt out of contributing,
just let us know and we will stop sending them altogether.
©2013 
